Ben Bolker's papers

Amphibian (and general) disease dynamics

[de Castro and Bolker, 2005a]: Francisco de Castro and Benjamin Bolker. Mechanisms of disease-induced extinction. Ecology Letters, 8:117–126, 2005. (PDF, 118930 bytes) (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00693.x)
[de Castro and Bolker, 2005b]: Francisco de Castro and Benjamin M. Bolker. Parasite establishment and host extinction in model communities. Oikos, 111(3):501–513, 2005. (PDF, 162642 bytes)

Spatial dynamics: dispersal, competition and epidemics

[Martcheva and Bolker, 2007]: Maia Martcheva and Benjamin M. Bolker. The impact of the Allee effect in dispersal and patch-occupancy age on the dynamics of metapopulations. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 69(1):135–156, 2007. (PDF, 348629 bytes) (doi:10.1007/s11538-006-9075-y)
[Clark et al., 2005]: C. J. Clark, J. R. Poulsen, B. M. Bolker, E. F. Connor, and V. T. Parker. Comparative seed shadows of bird-, monkey-, and wind-dispersed trees. Ecology, 86(10):2684–2694, 2005. (PDF, 112682 bytes)
[Seabloom et al., 2005]: Eric Seabloom, Ottar Bjørnstad, Benjamin Bolker, and Omar J. Reichman. The spatial signature of environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and competition in successional grasslands. Ecological Monographs, 75(2):199–214, 2005. (PDF, 485829 bytes)
[Bolker, 2004]: Benjamin Bolker. Continuous-space models for population dynamics. In Ilkka Hanski and Oscar E. Gaggioti, editors, Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations, chapter 3, pages 45–69. Elsevier Science, San Diego, CA, 2004. (PDF, 616832 bytes)
[Brown and Bolker, 2004]: David H. Brown and Benjamin M. Bolker. The effects of disease dispersal and host clustering on the epidemic threshold in plants. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 66:341–371, 2004. (PDF, 603204 bytes) (doi:10.1016/j.bulm.2003.08.006)
[Bolker, 2003]: Benjamin M. Bolker. Combining endogenous and exogenous spatial variability in analytical population models. Theoretical Population Biology, 64:255–270, 2003. (PDF, 311446 bytes)
[Bolker et al., 2003]: Benjamin M. Bolker, Stephen W. Pacala, and Claudia Neuhauser. Spatial dynamics in model plant communities: what do we really know? American Naturalist, 162(2):135–148, 2003. (PDF, 139416 bytes)
[Bjørnstad and Bolker, 2000]: Ottar N. Bjørnstad and Benjamin M. Bolker. Canonical functions for dispersal-induced synchrony. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 267(1454):1787–1794, 2000. (PDF, 279003 bytes) (doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1211)
[Bolker et al., 2000]: Benjamin M. Bolker, Stephen W. Pacala, and Simon A. Levin. Moment methods for stochastic processes in continuous space and time. In U. Dieckmann, R. Law, and J. A. J. Metz, editors, The Geometry of Ecological Interactions: Simplifying Spatial Complexity, pages 388–411. Cambridge University Press, 2000. (PDF, 361779 bytes)
[Bolker, 1999]: Benjamin M. Bolker. Analytic models for the patchy spread of plant disease. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 61:849–874, 1999. (PDF, 734399 bytes)
Basic application of spatial moment closure (power-1) to dynamics of a simple epidemic. Considers the covariance dynamics in a Poisson-distributed and aggregated host populations, and looks briefly at epidemics with removal/recovery.
[Bolker and Pacala, 1999]: B. M. Bolker and S. W. Pacala. Spatial moment equations for plant competition: understanding spatial strategies and the advantages of short dispersal. American Naturalist, 153:575–602, 1999. (PDF, 421997 bytes)
Analyzes the "spatial Lotka-Volterra model": two-species competition in a point process model. Decomposes spatial covariances into a series of terms that affect competitive invasion, attributing different terms to competition-colonization tradeoffs, successional niches, or phalanx growth. Uses power-1 closure and Bessel-function competition and dispersal kernels to get analytically tractable invasion criteria. (However, power-1 closure means that invasion criteria only act sensibly when the invader would lose in the non-spatial case.)
[Bolker and Pacala, 1997]: B. M. Bolker and S. W. Pacala. Using moment equations to understand stochastically driven spatial pattern formation in ecological systems. Theoretical Population Biology, 52:179–197, 1997. (PDF, 549750 bytes)
Spatial moment equations (power-1 closure) for the spatial logistic model, one-species competition. Analytical methods for solving for equilibrium are presented (but these methods are somewhat clumsy, and are superseded by those in Bolker and Pacala 1999). Predicts when equilibrium population patterns will be even vs. aggregated.
[Bolker et al., 1995]: B. M. Bolker, M. Altmann, M. Aubert, F. Ball, N. D. Barlow, R. G. Bowers, A. P. Dobson, J. S. Elkington, G. P. Garnett, C. A. Gilligan, M. P. Hassell, V. Isham, J. A. Jacquez, A. Kleczkowski, S. A. Levin, R. M. May, J. A.J. Metz, D. Mollison, M. Morris, L. A. Real, L. Sattenspiel, J.Swinton, P. White, and B. G. Williams. Group report: Spatial dynamics of infectious diseases in natural populations. In B. T. Grenfell and A. P. Dobson, editors, Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations. Cambridge University Press, 1995. (PDF, 595155 bytes)

Reef fish dynamics

[Bolker et al., 2002]: B. M. Bolker, C. M. St. Mary, C. W. Osenberg, R. J. Schmitt, and S. J. Holbrook. Management at a different scale: marine ornamentals and local processes. Bulletin of Marine Science, 70(2):733–748, 2002.

Sea turtles

[Bolker et al., 2007]: Benjamin M. Bolker, Toshinori Okuyama, Karen A. Bjorndal, and Alan B. Bolten. Incorporating multiple mixed stocks in mixed stock analysis: 'many-to-many' analyses. Molecular Ecology, 16:685–695, 2007. (PDF, 283947 bytes) (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.03161.x)
[Okuyama and Bolker, 2005]: Toshinori Okuyama and Benjamin M. Bolker. Combining genetic and ecological data to estimate sea turtle origins. Ecological Applications, 15(1):315–325, 2005. (PDF, 175588 bytes)
[Tiwari et al., 2005]: Manjula Tiwari, Karen A. Bjorndal, Alan B. Bolten, and Benjamin M. Bolker. Intraspecific application of the mid-domain effect model: spatial and temporal nest distributions of green turtles, Chelonia mydas, at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. Ecology Letters, 8(9):918–924, 2005. (PDF, 187241 bytes) (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00793.x)
[Bowen et al., 2004]: B. W. Bowen, A. L. Bass, S.-M. Chow, M. Bostrom, K. A. Bjorndal, A. B. Bolten, T. Okuyama, B. M. Bolker, S. Epperly, E. LaCasella, D. Shaver, M. Dodd, S. R. Hopkins-Murphy, J. A. Musick, M. Swingle, K. Rankin-Baransky, W. Teas, W. N. Witzell, and P. H. Dutton. Natal homing in juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta). Molecular Ecology, 13:3797–3808, 2004. (PDF, 195916 bytes) (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2004.02356.x)
[Bolker et al., 2003]: Benjamin Bolker, Toshinori Okuyama, Karen Bjorndal, and Alan Bolten. Stock estimation for sea turtle populations using genetic markers: accounting for sampling error of rare genotypes. Ecological Applications, 13(3):763–775, 2003. (PDF, 295081 bytes)

Global change

[Keller et al., 2004]: Klaus Keller, Benjamin Bolker, and David Bradford. Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48:723–741, 2004. (PDF, 312253 bytes) (doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2003.10.003)
[Bolker et al., 1998]: B. M. Bolker, S. W. Pacala, and W. J. Parton, Jr. Linear analysis of soil decomposition: insights from the sc Century model. Ecological Applications, 8(2):425–439, 1998. (PDF, 178086 bytes)
[Bolker et al., 1995]: B. M. Bolker, S. W. Pacala, F. A. Bazzaz, C. D. Canham, and S. A. Levin. Species diversity and ecosystem response to carbon dioxide fertilization: conclusions from a temperate forest model. Global Change Biology, 1:373–381, 1995. (PDF, 579726 bytes)

Measles and chaos

[Earn et al., 2000]: David J. D. Earn, Pejman Rohani, Benjamin M. Bolker, and Bryan T. Grenfell. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science, 287:667–670, 2000. (PDF, 679075 bytes)
[Grenfell and Bolker, 1998]: B. T. Grenfell and B. M. Bolker. Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation. Ecology Letters, 1(1):63–70, July 1998. (PDF, 1154948 bytes)
An important issue in the dynamics of directly transmitted microparasites is the relationship between infection probability and host density. We use models and extensive spatio-temporal data for the incidence of measles to examine evidence for spatial heterogeneity in transmission probability, in terms of urban-rural hierarchies in infection rate. Pre-vaccination measles data for England and Wales show strong evidence for urban-rural heterogeneities in infection rate -the proportion of urban cases rises significantly before major epidemics. The model shows that this effect is consistent with a higher infection rate in large cities, though small towns have epidemic characteristics intermediate between town and country. Surprisingly, urban and rural areas of the same population size have a similar propensity for local extinction of infection. A spatial map of urban-rural correlations reveals complex regional patterns of synchronization of towns and cities. The hierarchical heterogeneities in infection persist into the vaccine era; their implications for disease persistence and control are discussed
[Bolker and Grenfell, 1996]: B. M. Bolker and B. T. Grenfell. Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 93(22):12648–12653, 1996. (PDF, 1525286 bytes)
[Bolker and Grenfell, 1995]: Benjamin M. Bolker and Bryan T. Grenfell. Space, persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 348:309–320, 1995. (PDF, 2219689 bytes)
[Grenfell et al., 1995a]: B. T. Grenfell, B. M. Bolker, and A. Kleczkowski. Seasonality and extinction in chaotic metapopulations. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 259(1354):97–103, 1995. (PDF, 1217613 bytes)
[Grenfell et al., 1995b]: B. T. Grenfell, A. Kleczkowski, C. A. Gilligan, and B. M. Bolker. Spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear dynamics and chaos in infectious diseases. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 4:160–183, 1995.
[Grenfell and Bolker, 1994]: Bryan T. Grenfell and Benjamin M. Bolker. Population dynamics of measles. In Marilyn E. Scott and Gary Smith, editors, Parasitic and Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Ecology. Academic Press, San Diego, 1994.
[Grenfell et al., 1994]: B. T. Grenfell, A. Kleczkowski, S. P. Ellner, and B. M. Bolker. Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 348:515–530, 1994. Also published in Chaos and Forecasting: Proceedings of the Royal Society Discussion meeting (1995), ed. H. Tong (World Scientific: River Edge, NJ), pp. 321-345. (PDF, 2146906 bytes)
[Bolker, 1993]: B. Bolker. Chaos and complexity in measles models: a comparative numerical study. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 10:83–95, 1993. (PDF, 178576 bytes)
[Bolker and Grenfell, 1993]: B. M. Bolker and B. T. Grenfell. Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 251:75–81, 1993. (PDF, 1189126 bytes)
[Grenfell et al., 1993]: Bryan Grenfell, Ben Bolker, and Adam Kleczkowski. Seasonality, demography, and the dynamics of measles in developed countries. In Denis Mollison, editor, Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data, pages 248–268. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1993.

Miscellaneous

[Babbitt et al., 2006]: G. A. Babbitt, R. Kiltie, and B. Bolker. Are fluctuating asymmetry studies adequately sampled? implications of a new model for size distribution. American Naturalist, 167(2):230–245, 2006. (PDF, 894416 bytes) (doi:10.1086/498621)
[McCoy et al., 2006]: Michael W. McCoy, Benjamin M. Bolker, Craig W. Osenberg, Benjamin G. Miner, and James R. Vonesh. Size correction: comparing morphological traits among populations and environments. Oecologia, 148:547–554, 2006. (PDF, 340207 bytes) (doi:10.1007/s00442-006-0403-6)
[Levey et al., 2005]: Douglas J. Levey, Benjamin M. Bolker, Joshua J. Tewksbury, Sarah Sargent, and Nick M. Haddad. Effects of landscape corridors on seed dispersal by birds. Science, 309:146–148, 2005. (PDF, 122877 bytes)
[Vonesh and Bolker, 2005]: James R. Vonesh and Benjamin M. Bolker. Compensatory larval responses shift trade-offs associated with predator-induced hatching plasticity. Ecology, 86(6):1580–1591, 2005. (PDF, 168133 bytes)
[Bolker et al., 2003]: Benjamin Bolker, Marcel Holyoak, Vlastimil K v rivan, Locke Rowe, and Oswald Schmitz. Connecting theoretical and empirical studies of trait-mediated interactions. Ecology, 84(5):1101–1114, 2003. (PDF, 119849 bytes)
[Kitajima and Bolker, 2003]: K. Kitajima and B. M. Bolker. Testing performance rank reversals among coexisting species: crossover point irradiance analysis by Sack & Grubb (2001) and alternatives. Functional Ecology, 17:276–281, 2003. (PDF, 168176 bytes)
[Knutson et al., 1992]: E. O. Knutson, L. M. Hubbard, and B. Bolker. Determination of the surface to volume ratio in homes: measurements of radon and its progeny. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 42:121–126, 1992.
[Grinstein et al., 1991]: G. Grinstein, Yu He, C. Jayaprakash, and B. Bolker. Collective behavior of a coupled-map system with a conserved quantity. Physical Review A, 44:4923–4936, 1991.

Non-refereed publications

[Bolker, 2005]: Ben Bolker. Other people's data. BioScience, 55(7):550–551, 2005. (PDF, 51223 bytes)
[Hastings et al., 2005]: Alan Hastings, Peter Arzberger, Ben Bolker, Scott Collins, Anthony R. Ives, Norman A. Johnson, and Margaret A. Palmer. Quantitative bioscience for the 21st century. BioScience, 55(6):511–517, 2005.
[Bolker, 2004]: Benjamin Bolker. A smorgasbord of stochastic dynamics. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 19(1):11, 2004. (Book review of Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation by Russ Lande, Steinar Engen and Bernt-Erik Sæther, OUP 2003). (PDF, 88989 bytes)
[Bolker and Bolker, 1997]: Benjamin Bolker and Ethan D. Bolker. Modeling juror decay in a high profile criminal trial. Math Horizons, V(Nov.):12–16, 1997. (Newsletter of the Mathematical Association of America).
[Bolker et al., 1997]: B. M. Bolker, D. H. Deutschman, G. Hartvigsen, and D. L. Smith. Individual-based modelling: What is the difference? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 12(3):111, 1997. (PDF, 194069 bytes)
[Bolker and Grenfell, 1992]: B. M. Bolker and B. T. Grenfell. Are measles epidemics chaotic? Biologist, 39:107–110, 1992. (Newsletter of the British Society for Biology).
[May et al., 1992]: R. M. May, V. Isham, B. Bolker, E. Renshaw, A. J. Lawrance, N. M. Spencer, L. A. Smith, A. J. Mayne, G. P. King, V. Albrecht, K. S. Lim, I. Dvorak, J. Basterfield, Salahuddin, D. Mollison, K. S. Chan, H. Tong, R. C.L. Wolff, G. Lord, G. Nason, D. Tjostheim, M. Casdagli, R. L. Smith, D. S. Broomhead, J. P. Huke, M. R. Muldoon, D. Nychka, S. Ellner, A. R. Gallant, D. McCaffrey, and B. Cheng. Royal Statistical Society meeting on chaos: discussion. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 54:451–474, 1992.
[Hubbard et al., 1988]: L. M. Hubbard, B. Bolker, R. H. Socolow, and D. Dickerhoff. Radon dynamics in a house heated alternately by forced air and by electric resistance. In Proceedings of the 1988 EPA Symposium on Radon and Radon Reduction Technology, Denver, CO, 1988.